MMA Match Preview: Rafa Garcia (17-4-0) vs. Jared Gordon (21-7-0, 1 NC)

Event & Venue Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Main Card Start: 6:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM CT

Expected Walkout Time: ~7:45 PM ET (Main Card bout 12 of 14)

Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Injury & Availability Report

Rafa Garcia: No current injuries. Last fought in March 2025, earning a unanimous decision win over Vinc Pichel.

Jared Gordon: No reported injuries. Coming off a first-round TKO win over Thiago Moises in May 2025.

Recent Form & Fight History

Rafa Garcia

Last 5: W-L-W-W-L

Most Recent: UD win over Vinc Pichel (Mar 2025)

Notable Wins: Maheshate (UD), Jesse Ronson (SUB), Natan Levy (UD)

Losses: Grant Dawson (TKO), Drakkar Klose (UD)

Style: Persistent wrestler with strong top control; averages over 3 takedowns per fight. Striking is functional, used to set up level changes. Durable and cardio-reliable.

Jared Gordon

Last 5: W-L-NC-L-W

Most Recent: TKO win over Thiago Moises (May 2025)

Notable Wins: Leonardo Santos (UD), Joe Solecki (SD), Chris Fishgold (UD)

Losses: Nasrat Haqparast (SD), Grant Dawson (SUB)

Style: High-volume boxer with crisp combinations, relentless forward pressure, and solid clinch work. Mixes in opportunistic takedowns but prefers to keep it standing.

Matchup Analysis

Striking:

Gordon: Higher output, better accuracy, and more consistent volume (5.67 SLpM at 55% accuracy).

Garcia: Lower output but improving boxing; uses strikes to close distance.

Grappling:

Garcia: Stronger offensive wrestling (3.21 TD avg, 43% accuracy) and better TDD (77%).

Gordon: Solid scrambling, but 62% TDD can be tested.

Cardio:

Both have proven three-round gas tanks; Gordon’s pace is relentless, Garcia’s is grind-heavy.

Intangibles:

Garcia: Younger, slightly longer reach, and more dangerous in grappling exchanges.

Gordon: Vast experience against top-tier opponents, veteran composure, and recent KO momentum.

Betting Trends

Line Movement: Gordon opened around -240; steady action has pushed him toward -260/-265.

Public Action: Majority of public bets on Gordon ML; some sharp interest on Garcia as a live dog due to wrestling edge.

Prop Interest:

Gordon by Decision (-110 to +100) — aligns with his volume-based style.

Garcia by Decision (+350) — value if he can control with wrestling.

Historical Trends:

Garcia: 8 of 9 UFC fights have gone to decision.

Gordon: 7 of last 9 wins by decision.

FIGHT ODDS

Rafa Garcia                         + 145

Jared Gordon                    – 170

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, September 12, 2025