MMA Match Preview: Gabe Green (11-5) vs. Matheus Camilo (9-2)

The lightweight division sees an intriguing battle at UFC Fight Night 256, as Gabe Green (11-5) takes on Matheus Camilo (9-2). Green returns to the Octagon after a two-year layoff, while Camilo makes his UFC debut, riding a six-fight winning streak.

Fighter Profiles & Recent Form

Gabe Green

• Record: 11-5
• Age: 32
• Height: 5’10”
• Reach: 73″
• Fight Style: Aggressive striker with solid grappling
• Recent Form: Green has lost his last two fights, including a 14-second knockout loss to Bryan Battle in his most recent appearance. He previously dropped a unanimous decision to Ian Machado Garry. Now, he moves down to lightweight, hoping to reignite his UFC career.

Matheus Camilo

• Record: 9-2
• Age: 24
• Height: 5’9″
• Reach: 72″
• Fight Style: Well-rounded fighter with strong finishing ability
• Recent Form: Camilo enters the UFC on a six-fight winning streak, most recently earning a unanimous decision victory over Dorobshokh Nabotov. He has been highly active, fighting five times in the last two years.

Fight Breakdown & Key Factors

Striking Battle

• Green has high-volume striking, averaging 6.20 significant strikes per minute, but absorbs 6.92, making him vulnerable to counters.
• Camilo has knockout power, with six of his nine career wins coming via stoppage.
• Green’s aggressive style could either overwhelm Camilo or leave openings for counters.

Grappling & Ground Game

• Green has solid grappling, with six submission wins, but struggles with takedown defense.
• Camilo has strong wrestling, which could neutralize Green’s offense.
• If Camilo can control the pace and dictate where the fight takes place, he has a strong chance of winning.

Cardio & Durability

• Green has Octagon experience, but his durability has been tested in recent fights.
• Camilo has never fought UFC-caliber competition, making this a significant step up.
• If Green can push the pace and drag Camilo into deep waters, his experience could be an advantage.

Camilo’s momentum and wrestling advantage give him the edge, but Green’s experience and finishing ability make this competitive. If Green can weather Camilo’s early offense and push the pace, he could secure a late finish or decision. However, Camilo’s strong wrestling and striking power could be the deciding factors.

FIGHT ODDS

Gabe Green                       + 190

Matheus Camilo               + 230

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, May 16, 2025