UFC Houston MMA Match Preview: Chidi Njokuani (25-11-0, 1 NC) vs. Carlos Leal (22-7-0)

Event Overview

The UFC returns to Houston for an action-packed Fight Night event headlined by a middleweight clash between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez. The card features a mix of rising prospects and veteran fighters across multiple divisions, with the spotlight on the welterweight preliminary bout between Chidi Njokuani and Carlos Leal. This event marks the UFC’s first visit to Houston since 2023, promising an electric atmosphere in a city known for its passionate MMA fans.

• Venue Location: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas, United States. This multi-purpose arena has hosted numerous UFC events, seating up to 19,000 for MMA fights and known for its state-of-the-art facilities and vibrant crowd energy.

• Prelims begin at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PST), with the main card starting at 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PST). The Njokuani vs. Leal fight is slated for the preliminary card, likely airing around 6:00-7:00 PM ET on UFC Fight Pass and Paramount+.

Injury Report

No major injuries have been reported for either Chidi Njokuani or Carlos Leal leading up to this fight. Njokuani has dealt with weight-cutting issues in recent bouts, missing weight by 1.25 pounds in his March 2025 win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and requiring extra time to make 171 pounds for his July 2025 loss to Jake Matthews. However, he appears healthy and focused on rebounding. Leal, coming off a quick knockout loss in July 2025, has no disclosed lingering effects from that defeat or prior fights. Both fighters are expected to be at full strength, though Njokuani’s age (37) and recent submission loss could factor into durability concerns.

Fighter Matchups: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos LealThis welterweight prelim bout pits two aggressive strikers against each other in what could be a fireworks-filled stand-up war. Njokuani, a long-time veteran with kickboxing roots, brings height and reach advantages, while Leal, a former PFL standout, relies on power and forward pressure. Expect a high-paced fight with potential for an early finish, as both have shown vulnerabilities on the ground but excel in exchanges.

Fighter Profiles and Recent Form

Chidi Njokuani (“Bang Bang”)

• Record: 25-11-0 (1 NC)
• Age: 37
• Height/Reach: 6’3″ / 80″
• Stance: Orthodox
• Strengths: Elite striking with powerful knees and kicks; knockout power (18 KOs in career); experience against top competition.
• Weaknesses: Grappling defense (submitted in recent loss); weight-cutting struggles; age-related decline in speed.

Recent Form (Last 4 Fights):

Date	Opponent	Result	Method	Round/Time
Jul 12, 2025	Jake Matthews	Loss	Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)	1 / 1:09
Mar 15, 2025	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	Win	TKO (Strikes)	2 / 2:19
Oct 12, 2024	Jared Gooden	Win	Unanimous Decision	3 / 5:00
Mar 30, 2024	Rhys McKee	Win	Split Decision	3 / 5:00

Njokuani enters on a skid after a quick submission loss but had won three straight prior, showcasing his striking prowess. He’s 3-1 in his last four UFC outings, with two finishes.

Carlos Leal (“The Lion”)

• Record: 22-7-0
• Age: 31
• Height/Reach: 5’11” / 74″
• Stance: Orthodox
• Strengths: Explosive power punching (15 KOs); aggressive forward pressure; resilience in stand-up wars.
• Weaknesses: Susceptible to counters (recent KO loss); limited UFC experience (1-2 record); grappling not elite.

Recent Form (Last 3 Fights):

Date	Opponent	Result	Method	Round/Time
Jul 26, 2025	Muslim Salikhov	Loss	KO (Punch)	1 / 0:42
Mar 8, 2025	Alex Morono	Win	KO (Punches)	1 / 4:16
Oct 26, 2024	Rinat Fakhretdinov	Loss	Unanimous Decision	3 / 5:00

Leal is 1-2 in the UFC, with his sole win a highlight-reel knockout. His recent form shows boom-or-bust potential, alternating finishes with losses.

Fight History

This is the first meeting between Njokuani and Leal. No prior head-to-head encounters or common opponents provide direct comparisons. Both are primarily strikers, so stylistic analysis points to a stand-up battle where Njokuani’s range could counter Leal’s aggression.

Betting Trends

While the query mentions middleweight fights, this bout is at welterweight (170 lbs). General UFC welterweight trends include:

• Favorites win 65-70% of the time in non-title welterweight bouts since 2020, but underdogs like Njokuani have cashed at +EV in striker vs. striker matchups.
• Over 1.5 rounds hits ~60% in welterweight fights featuring two strikers, as early knockouts are common but decisions occur when range is managed.
• Knockouts account for 45% of welterweight finishes, favoring aggressive punchers like Leal. Broader MMA trends: Underdogs in prelim bouts have a 40% upset rate, and fights involving veterans over 35 (like Njokuani) often go under due to durability issues. Avoid “MMA Math” – focus on styles rather than common opponents.

FIGHT ODDS

Chidi Njokuani                  + 110

Carlos Leal                          – 130

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, February 20, 2026