MMA Match Preview: Terrance McKinney (17-7) vs. Chris Duncan (14-2)
The lightweight division’s powder keg explodes on the prelims of UFC 323 as Terrance “T. Wrecks” McKinney (17-7-0) collides with Chris “The Problem” Duncan (14-2-0) on Saturday, December 6, 2025. McKinney, the 31-year-old switch-striking whirlwind ranked No. 43, enters on a two-fight first-round finish streak, channeling a “higher IQ” evolution at Fusion X-Cel after a brutal 2024 head-kick KO setback. His seven UFC victories—all stoppages, seven in Round 1—promise chaos, but his 47% striking defense invites counters from durable foes. Duncan, the 32-year-old Scottish orthodox powerhouse ranked No. 44, rides a three-fight win streak including two guillotine chokes and a gritty unanimous decision, seeking his sixth Octagon triumph to crash the Top 30. His 51% striking defense and recent Fight of the Night nod highlight resilience, but absorbing 4.64 significant strikes per minute could prove fatal against McKinney’s blitz (5.78 SLpM). Originally slated for October 2023 before Duncan’s visa woes, this rescheduled grudge match—fueled by social media barbs and “bad blood”—pits McKinney’s explosive urgency against Duncan’s late-round reliability in a three-round thriller primed for a $50K bonus, with the victor eyeing ranked elevation in a shark-filled 155-pound hierarchy.
Venue Location
The carnage unfolds at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada (the Las Vegas Valley), at 3780 South Las Vegas Boulevard. This 20,000-seat juggernaut, unveiled in 2016 as the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights’ citadel, has hosted 18 UFC extravaganzas, from the riotous UFC 229 (McGregor vs. Khabib) to record PPV hauls. Flanked by the New York-New York Hotel & Casino and the dazzling Strip, it’s a logistics haven: Las Vegas Monorail (MGM Grand station) or rideshare depots (Uber/Lyft at Park MGM). Standouts include a 360-degree video halo, fighter-access suites, and fan fare like “Guillotine Wings” and premium lounges. As the UFC’s ESPN PPV valediction before the 2026 Paramount+ dawn, expect a deafening, sold-out frenzy of 19,000+; tickets via Ticketmaster start at $150 for prelim uppers, with T-Mobile garage parking at $50/event.
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. PT) for prelims (McKinney-Duncan slotted around 8:45 p.m. ET)
Broadcast: ESPN/ESPN+ (prelims), ESPN+ PPV (main card at 10:00 p.m. ET). Early prelims on ESPN+ at 6:00 p.m. ET; international via UFC Fight Pass. SiriusXM Fight Nation (Ch. 93) for audio.
Injury Report
Both gladiators enter cleared after Friday weigh-ins at 155 lbs, with no active injuries per UFC medicals. McKinney’s 2024 head-kick KO by Esteban Ribovics (May 11) involved concussion protocol but no lasting effects—full camps since his June sub win. Duncan’s lone 2024 blemish: a first-round RNC tap to Manuel Torres (Feb. 24), yielding no structural damage; his three-fight surge uninterrupted. Visa snags derailed their 2023 booking, not health—expect cut fatigue but razor-sharp form.
| Fighter | Status | Recent Injury History | Notes |
| Terrance McKinney | Cleared | Head-kick KO (May 2024 vs. Ribovics; concussion protocol, resolved by Feb. 2025) | Full explosiveness; “IQ” focus at Fusion X-Cel |
| Chris Duncan | Cleared | RNC sub (Feb. 2024 vs. Torres; no downtime) | Grappling honed; three bonuses in streak |
Fighter Matchups
McKinney’s switch-striking frenzy (3.59 TD/15 min, 2.2 subs attempted) tests Duncan’s sprawls (51% striking defense), but the Scot’s guillotine traps (0.5 subs/15 min) lurk in scrambles. McKinney’s 73″ reach edges Duncan’s 71″, favoring blitzes; expect a frenetic pace fading to ground chess.
Striking: Blitz Volume vs. Durable Counters
McKinney’s pressure (5.78 SLpM, 47% defense) overwhelms early, landing 25+ sig strikes in sub-2-min finishes vs. Borshchev/Hadzovic. Duncan’s absorption (4.64/min, 51% defense) held vs. Rebecki (bloody UD), but invites chaos—his KO over Borshchev (R2) shows pop. Edge: McKinney Rd. 1; Duncan if extended (mirrors his Vucenic sub).
Grappling: Takedown Chains vs. Guillotine Hunts
McKinney’s wrestling (3.59 TD/15 min) meets Duncan’s 75% TD defense and sub savvy (three guillotines in streak). McKinney’s mounted guillotine vs. Borshchev highlights transitions; Duncan stuffed Rebecki’s attempts. Edge: Duncan—his chokes exploit McKinney’s 60% sub defense in wild scrambles.
Cardio & Durability: Explosive Bursts vs. Late Resilience
McKinney’s finishes (avg. 1:12 time, 88% wins Rd. 1) vs. Duncan’s decisions (29% wins, but 3-0 streak with Rd. 3 UD). McKinney absorbs 5.2/min in losses; Duncan weathered Rebecki’s barrage. Edge: Duncan—McKinney’s untested stamina (0 UFC decisions) risks fade.
Recent Form
McKinney is 2-0 in 2025 after 2024’s KO loss, all first-round stops: Sub (guillotine) vs. Borshchev (Jun. 28, UFC 317, :55), TKO (punches) vs. Hadzovic (Feb. 1, UFC Fight Night 250, 2:01). His seven UFC wins: all Rd. 1, but three losses by quick finishes. Duncan is 3-0 in 2025, blending finishes and volume: UD vs. Rebecki (Aug. 2, UFC on ESPN 71, 29-28 x2/30-27, FOTN), Sub (guillotine) vs. Vucenic (Mar. 22, UFC Fight Night 255, Rd. 2, 3:42), Sub (guillotine) vs. Oki (Sep. 28, 2024, Rd. 1, 3:34, POTN). Pre-2025: 2-1 UFC with split DEC win.
| Last 5 Fights | Record | Key Win | Key Loss | Notes |
| McKinney | 3-1-0 | W-Sub vs. Borshchev (Jun. 2025, Rd. 1) | L-KO vs. Ribovics (May 2024) | 100% Rd. 1 UFC wins; 25 strikes avg. |
| Duncan | 4-1-0 | W-UD vs. Rebecki (Aug. 2025, 3 rds) | L-Sub vs. Torres (Feb. 2024) | 3 bonuses; 4.64 SLpM avg. |
Fight History
First head-to-head—delayed from Oct. 2023 (Duncan’s visa). McKinney’s UFC: 7-4, seven Rd. 1 stops (Frevola KO :07 record); losses to Sadykhov (sub), Ribovics (KO). Duncan’s UFC: 5-1, three subs/two DECs/one KO; lone loss to Torres (RNC). Analogs: McKinney 4-2 vs. grapplers; Duncan 3-0 vs. pressure fighters.
| Date | McKinney Result | Duncan Result | Notes |
| N/A | First meeting | First meeting | McKinney 7-4 UFC; Duncan 5-1 UFC |
Betting Trends
McKinney is 4-3 SU last 7, 3-4 ATS; public chases his finishes (65% tickets on +136), but 6-1 Under 1.5 in wins. He’s 0-3 SU post-KO losses. Duncan is 5-1 SU UFC, 4-2 ATS; sharps back -162 (70% handle), 3-0 Over in streak. Analogs: McKinney 2-5 vs. -150 faves; Duncan 3-1 as fave. Public 58% Duncan ML; trends favor Under (McKinney 7/7 UFC Under 1.5).
Trends: McKinney 7/7 UFC Under 1.5; Duncan 4/6 Over 1.5. McKinney 2-0 SU 2025; Duncan 3-0 SU 2025.
FIGHT ODDS
Terrance McKinney + 130
Chris Duncan – 160
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
