MMA Match Preview: Rodrigo Sezinando (8-1-0) vs. Daniil Donchenko (11-2-0)

Event & Venue Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Expected Walkout Time: ~4:30 PM CT (Prelims)

Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Bout Billing: TUF 33 welterweight final — Brazil vs. Ukraine

Injury & Availability Report

Rodrigo Sezinando: Originally scheduled to face Donchenko at UFC 319 in August, but withdrew during fight week due to injury. Fully cleared and returning for this rescheduled finale.

Daniil Donchenko: No reported injuries; stayed in camp after UFC 319 cancellation to maintain readiness.

Recent Form & Fight History

Rodrigo Sezinando

TUF 33 Run:

Def. Diego Bianchini (UD)

Def. Jeff Creighton (SD)

Pre-TUF: Stoppage wins over Jonathan Ramsay (TKO R1) and Dario Sinagoga (TKO R2) in 2024.

Style: Smothering grappler with high-level jiu-jitsu; relentless takedown pressure; dangerous rear-naked choke.

Concerns: Striking is raw; can be countered if entries are telegraphed.

Daniil Donchenko

TUF 33 Run:

Def. Richard Martins (UD)

Def. Matt Dixon (KO R1) — highlight-reel finish.

Pre-TUF: UD win over Rustem Kudaybergenov (Nov 2024) and RNC submission over Kanybek Zhanybek Uulu (Jul 2024).

Style: Aggressive Muay Thai/kickboxing base; heavy hands; mixes in opportunistic takedowns.

Concerns: Can get drawn into brawls; defensive grappling still developing.

Matchup Analysis

Striking:

Donchenko: More polished and powerful; dangerous at range and in exchanges.

Sezinando: Uses striking to close distance; power is respectable but secondary to grappling.

Grappling:

Sezinando: Clear edge; strong chain wrestling, positional control, and submission arsenal.

Donchenko: Solid defensive wrestling regionally, but untested against elite grapplers.

Cardio:

Both have gone the distance on TUF; Sezinando’s grinding style can sap opponents’ gas tanks.

Fight Dynamic:

If Sezinando can secure takedowns early, he can dominate on the mat.

If Donchenko keeps it standing, his power and volume could overwhelm.

Betting Trends

Line Movement: Donchenko opened around -200; slight uptick toward -240 as public money favors his striking edge.

Public Action: Majority of bets on Donchenko ML; some sharp interest on Sezinando submission props.

Prop Interest:

Donchenko by KO/TKO (+150 to +175) — most popular favorite prop.

Sezinando by Submission (+400 to +500) — value play for grappling edge.

Historical Trends:

Sezinando: 78% finish rate; thrives when landing 2+ takedowns.

Donchenko: 82% finish rate; 7 of 9 finishes by KO/TKO.