MMA Match Preview: Pat Sabatini (20-5) vs. Chepe Mariscal (18-6)
Venue & Timing
Event: UFC 322
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Bell Time: Prelim card, walkouts expected around 7:00 PM ET
Broadcast: ESPN+ (USA), TNT Sports (UK)
Injury Report
Pat Sabatini: No reported injuries; cleared after his unanimous decision win over Joanderson Brito.
Chepe Mariscal: No reported injuries; cleared after his March 2025 victory over Ricardo Ramos.
Fighter Matchups
Pat Sabatini:
Style: Elite wrestler and grappler.
Stats: 1.87 significant strikes landed per minute, 62% accuracy.
Grappling: 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy, 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Strengths: Positional control, submission setups, defensive durability.
Weaknesses: Vulnerable to fast-starting strikers (KO losses to Damon Jackson, Diego Lopes).
Chepe Mariscal:
Style: Relentless pressure fighter with balanced striking and wrestling.
Stats: 4.95 significant strikes landed per minute, 56% accuracy.
Grappling: 3.09 takedowns per 15 minutes, 39% accuracy, 73% takedown defense.
Strengths: Cardio, pace, ability to absorb damage and keep pressing forward.
Weaknesses: Limited finishing ability at elite level, relies on volume over power.
Recent Form
Sabatini:
Win vs. Joanderson Brito (UD, 2025).
Losses to Diego Lopes (KO, 2024) and Damon Jackson (KO, 2023).
3–2 in last five fights, rebuilding momentum.
Mariscal:
Win vs. Ricardo Ramos (UD, March 2025).
Wins vs. Morgan Charrière, Jack Jenkins, Trevor Peek.
Perfect 5–0 UFC record, riding eight-fight win streak.
Fight History
First Meeting: April 2018, Victory FC 60 — Mariscal defeated Sabatini via split decision.
Context: That bout featured wild grappling exchanges, setting the stage for this rematch seven years later.
Betting Trends
Sabatini: 4 of last 6 wins by submission; bettors favor his grappling control.
Mariscal: 5–0 UFC record, all wins by decision or late stoppage; sharp bettors target his decision prop.
Totals: Public money leaning Over 2.5 rounds, expecting extended grappling exchanges.
Key Factors: Mariscal’s relentless pace and cardio should neutralize Sabatini’s grappling, while Sabatini remains dangerous with submission attempts.
Summary: UFC 322’s featherweight prelim at Madison Square Garden is a rematch seven years in the making. Sabatini’s wrestling and submission arsenal clash with Mariscal’s relentless pace and cardio, making this a stylistic chess match. Expect a competitive three-round battle, with Mariscal’s pressure likely earning him another decision victory.
FIGHT ODDS
Pat Sabatini – 140
Chepe Mariscal + 120
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, November 14, 2025
