MMA Match Preview: Lucas Rocha (17-2) vs. Stewart Nicoll (8-1)

Venue & Event Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Time: Prelims start 4:00 p.m. ET; Rocha vs. Nicoll expected ~5:00 p.m. ET

Division: Flyweight (125 lbs), 3 rounds

Injury Report

Lucas Rocha: Healthy, no reported issues.

Stewart Nicoll: Healthy, cleared to fight.

Fighter Matchups

Lucas Rocha (Brazil, 25 years old)

Record: 17-2 (10 KO/TKO, 4 SUB)

Height/Reach: 5’3”, 64” reach

Style: Aggressive striker with knockout power, opportunistic submissions.

Last Fight: Loss to Clayton Carpenter (R2 submission, Oct 2024).

Strengths: High-volume combinations, dangerous knees, improving defensive grappling.

Weaknesses: Absorbs 4.5 significant strikes per minute, undersized for flyweight.

Stewart Nicoll (Australia, 30 years old)

Record: 8-1 (4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB)

Height/Reach: 5’5”, 65.5” reach

Style: Grappling-heavy, opportunistic finisher.

Last Fight: Loss to Jesus Aguilar (R1 guillotine choke, UFC 305).

Strengths: Strong clinch game, trips and body locks, opportunistic submissions.

Weaknesses: Defensive lapses in scrambles, limited UFC experience.

Key Battle: Rocha’s striking volume and power vs. Nicoll’s grappling pressure and submission setups.

Records & Recent Form

Rocha (Last 5): L-W-W-W-W – six-fight win streak before UFC debut loss.

Nicoll (Last 5): L-W-W-W-W – undefeated before debut loss to Aguilar.

Series History

First meeting between Rocha and Nicoll.

Betting Trends

Rocha: 14 of 17 wins by finish; rarely goes to decision.

Nicoll: 7 of 8 wins by finish; only 3 fights have gone past Round 2.

Public picks: 77% backing Rocha, 23% Nicoll.

Both fighters lost UFC debuts by submission, raising questions about grappling defense.

FIGHT ODDS

Lucas Rocha                       – 115

Stewart Nicoll                   – 105

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, October 10, 2025