MMA Match Preview: Leon Edwards (22-5-1) vs. Carlos Prates (22-7)

Venue & Timing

Event: UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Expected Bell Time: ~7:45 PM ET

Broadcast: ESPN+ (USA), TNT Sports (UK)

Injury Report

Leon Edwards: No reported injuries; cleared after his loss to Sean Brady earlier in 2025.

Carlos Prates: No reported injuries; healthy after his KO win over Geoff Neal.

Fighter Matchups

Leon Edwards:

Style: Technical striker, versatile counter-fighter.

Strengths: Precise jabs, leg kicks, high kick setups, defensive wrestling.

Weaknesses: Passive stretches, struggles against relentless grapplers (losses to Belal Muhammad, Sean Brady).

Carlos Prates:

Style: Explosive kickboxer with knockout power.

Strengths: 77% KO rate (17 of 22 wins), lethal elbows/knees, rangy frame with 78” reach.

Weaknesses: Defensive lapses, all seven losses by finish, vulnerable when pressured.

Recent Form

Edwards:

L vs. Sean Brady (submission, Mar 2025).

L vs. Belal Muhammad (decision, 2024).

Previously defended title vs. Kamaru Usman (2023).

2–3 in last five, struggling to regain momentum.

Prates:

KO win vs. Geoff Neal (spinning elbow, 2025).

L vs. Ian Machado Garry (decision, Jan 2025).

Wins vs. Neil Magny, Randy Brown (2024).

4–1 in last five, surging into contender status.

Fight History Context

First meeting between Edwards and Prates.

Edwards seeks redemption after losing his belt and two straight fights.

Prates aims to prove he can finish elite-level opponents and earn a title eliminator.

Betting Trends

Edwards: 6 of last 8 wins by decision; bettors lean toward decision prop.

Prates: 4 of last 5 wins by KO; public money favors KO/TKO outcome.

Totals: Split action — casual bettors backing “Fight Doesn’t Go Distance,” sharps leaning Edwards decision.

Key Factors: Edwards’ technical striking and back-control grappling could frustrate Prates, but Prates’ reach, power, and momentum make him the favorite.

Summary: UFC 322’s welterweight clash is a pivotal career crossroads. Edwards’ championship experience and technical striking meet Prates’ knockout power and surging momentum. Expect a competitive start, but Prates’ explosiveness likely breaks through late.

Prediction: Prates by KO (Round 3).

FIGHT ODDS

Leon Edwards                    + 160

Carlos Prates                     – 190

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, November 14, 2025