MMA Match Preview: Kelvin Gastelum (20-10-1, 1 NC) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7-0)

Event & Venue Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Main Card Start: 6:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM CT

Expected Walkout Time: ~7:15 PM CT (Main Card bout)

Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Injury & Availability Report

Kelvin Gastelum: No fight-cancelling injuries, but missed weight by 5 lbs at the official weigh-in, coming in at 191 lbs. Bout proceeds at catchweight; Gastelum forfeits 35% of his purse to Stoltzfus. This is his fifth career UFC weight miss and first at middleweight.

Dustin Stoltzfus: No reported injuries; made weight at 185.5 lbs. Accepted the fight at the higher catchweight.

Recent Form & Fight History

Kelvin Gastelum

Last 5: L-W-L-W-L

Most Recent: UD loss to Joe Pyfer (UFC 316, Jun 2025)

Notable Wins: Michael Bisping (KO), Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (SD), Daniel Rodriguez (UD)

Style: Durable southpaw boxer-wrestler; thrives in pocket exchanges; elite chin; solid defensive movement.

Concerns: Inconsistent preparation, weight management issues, undersized for middleweight.

Dustin Stoltzfus

Last 5: L-W-L-W-L

Most Recent: UD loss to Nursulton Ruziboev (UFC Vegas 106, May 2025)

Notable Wins: Marc-André Barriault (KO), Punahele Soriano (KO)

Style: Well-rounded with heavy hands and dangerous submission game (6 career subs); mixes boxing with opportunistic takedowns.

Concerns: Struggles against top-tier competition; fades under sustained pressure.

Matchup Analysis

Striking:

Gastelum: Faster hands, better combination variety, more accurate in exchanges.

Stoltzfus: Longer reach, heavier single-shot power, but less defensively sound.

Grappling:

Gastelum: Solid defensive wrestling (58% TDD), rarely submitted.

Stoltzfus: More active submission threat (1.3 attempts/15 min), better offensive wrestling metrics.

Cardio:

Gastelum: Proven over five rounds; can maintain pace.

Stoltzfus: Effective early, but output can drop in later rounds.

Intangibles:

Gastelum: Vast experience against elite names; fighting under scrutiny after weight miss.

Stoltzfus: Motivated by catchweight advantage and purse bonus from Gastelum’s fine.

Betting Trends

Line Movement: Gastelum opened around -250; odds have held steady despite weight miss.

Public Action: Majority of public bets on Gastelum ML; some sharp money on Stoltzfus submission props.

Prop Interest:

Gastelum by Decision (+120 to +140) — aligns with durability of both fighters.

Stoltzfus by Submission (+600 to +750) — capitalizes on his grappling edge.

Historical Trends:

Gastelum: 7 of last 9 fights went to decision.

Stoltzfus: 4 of last 6 losses inside the distance.

FIGHT ODDS

Kelvin Gastelum              – 225

Dustin Stoltzfus                + 185

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, September 12, 2025