MMA Match Preview: Julia Polastri (13-5) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9)

Venue & Event Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Time: Prelims approx. 4:20 p.m. ET (1:20 p.m. PT)

Division: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs), 3 rounds

Weather Forecast (Rio de Janeiro)

Temperature: ~78°F (26°C)

Conditions: Humid, partly cloudy

Impact: None – indoor arena

Injury Report

Julia Polastri: Healthy, no reported issues.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz: Healthy, cleared to fight.

Fighter Matchups

Julia Polastri (Brazil, 27 years old)

Record: 13-5 (1-2 UFC)

Height/Reach: 5’2”, 63.5” reach

Style: Pressure striker with BJJ background

Strikes Landed: 5.62 per min, 55% accuracy

Takedown Defense: 58%

Last Fight: Loss to Loopy Godinez (UD, June 2025)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (Poland, 39 years old)

Record: 16-9 (9-9 UFC)

Height/Reach: 5’3”, 64” reach

Style: Veteran kickboxer, durable, decision-heavy

Strikes Landed: 5.54 per min, 43% accuracy

Last Fight: Loss to Denise Gomes (UD, May 2025)

Notable: Former title challenger vs Joanna Jędrzejczyk (2016)

Key Battle: Polastri’s forward pressure and volume vs. Kowalkiewicz’s jab, clinch, and veteran savvy.

Records & Recent Form

Polastri: 1-2 UFC, win over Cory McKenna, losses to Knutsson & Godinez.

Kowalkiewicz: 4-fight win streak (2022–23), but now on 2-fight skid vs Lucindo & Gomes.

Both fighters’ last 5 bouts have gone to decision.

Series History

First meeting between the two.

Betting Trends

Polastri: 4 of last 5 fights went to decision.

Kowalkiewicz: Last 5 fights all went to decision; 12 career decision wins.

UFC Rio crowd typically boosts Brazilian fighters’ performance.

Public money leaning heavily on Polastri (Tapology picks: 81% Polastri).

FIGHT ODDS

Julia Polastri                                      – 450

Karolina Kowalkiewicz                  + 325

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, October 10, 2025