MMA Match Preview: Jared Gordon (20-7, 1 NC) vs. Thiago Moises (19-8)

The lightweight division sees two seasoned competitors square off as Jared Gordon (20-7, 1 NC) takes on Thiago Moises (19-8) at UFC Fight Night 256. Both fighters are looking to climb the rankings, with Gordon aiming to rebound from a tough split-decision loss and Moises seeking to build momentum after a recent victory.

Fighter Profiles & Recent Form

Jared Gordon

• Record: 20-7 (1 NC)
• Age: 36
• Height: 5’9″
• Reach: 68″
• Fight Style: High-volume striker with strong cardio and solid grappling
• Recent Form: Gordon has had a rough stretch, going 2-3-1 in his last six fights, including a controversial loss to Nasrat Haqparast. Many believe he should have won his fight against Paddy Pimblett, but the judges ruled against him.

Thiago Moises

• Record: 19-8
• Age: 30
• Height: 5’9″
• Reach: 70.5″
• Fight Style: Well-rounded fighter with strong grappling and submission skills
• Recent Form: Moises has won four of his last six fights, including a unanimous decision victory over Trey Ogden earlier this year. His losses have come against elite competition, including Islam Makhachev and Benoit Saint Denis.

Fight Breakdown & Key Factors

Striking Battle

• Gordon lands 5.75 significant strikes per minute, compared to Moises’ 2.50.
• Moises absorbs 4.12 strikes per minute, while Gordon takes 3.97, showing Gordon’s edge in striking defense.
• Gordon lacks knockout power but throws precise combinations, while Moises has struggled against high-volume strikers.

Grappling & Ground Game

• Moises is the superior grappler, averaging 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes, compared to Gordon’s 0.7.
• Gordon has a 62% takedown defense, while Moises defends at 53%.
• If Moises can secure takedowns, he has a strong chance of controlling the fight.

Cardio & Durability

• Gordon is known for his relentless pace and cardio, often pushing fights to the later rounds.
• Moises has shown durability but tends to struggle against fighters who pressure him consistently.

Moises has the edge in grappling, but Gordon’s striking volume and cardio could be the deciding factors. If Gordon keeps the fight standing, he has a strong chance of winning by decision. However, if Moises can secure takedowns, he could find a submission finish.

FIGHT ODDS

Jared Gordon                    + 105

Thiago Moises                  – 125

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, May 16, 2025