MMA Match Preview: Jafel Filho (16-4) vs. Clayton Carpenter (8-1)

Venue & Event Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Time: Prelims begin 4:00 p.m. ET; Filho vs. Carpenter walkouts approx. 5:40 p.m. ET

Division: Flyweight (125 lbs), 3 rounds

Injury Report

Jafel Filho: Healthy, no reported issues.

Clayton Carpenter: Healthy, cleared to fight.

Fighter Matchups

Jafel Filho (Brazil, 32 years old)

Record: 16-4 (2-2 UFC)

Style: Submission specialist (10 career subs, mostly rear-naked choke).

Strengths: Opportunistic grappler, dangerous off his back, cardio edge.

Weaknesses: Struggles against strong wrestlers (losses to Allan Nascimento, Muhammad Mokaev).

Clayton Carpenter (USA, 29 years old)

Record: 8-1 (2-1 UFC)

Style: Wrestler/grappler with submission finishes.

Strengths: Top control, positional awareness, mixes ground-and-pound with subs.

Weaknesses: Can slow down late, vulnerable to submission attempts during entries.

Key Battle: Carpenter’s wrestling pressure vs. Filho’s submission traps.

Recent Form

Filho (Last 5): L-W-W-L-W – recent wins over Ode’ Osbourne and Daniel Barez, loss to Allan Nascimento (UD).

Carpenter (Last 5): L-W-W-W-W – first career loss to Tagir Ulanbekov (UD), prior wins over Lucas Rocha and Juancamilo Rodrigues.

Series History

First meeting between these two flyweights.

Betting Trends

Filho: 15 of 20 career fights ended inside the distance; 2-2 UFC record.

Carpenter: 6 of 8 wins by finish; never been stopped.

Public picks: 77% Carpenter, 23% Filho (Tapology community).

Both fighters lost their last bout by decision to ranked opponents.

FIGHT ODDS

Jafel Filho                           + 105

Clayton Carpenter           – 125

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, October 10, 2025