MMA Match Preview: Grant Dawson (23-2-1) vs. Manuel Torres (16-3)
The lightweight division’s clash of styles takes center stage on the featured prelims of UFC 323 as No. 13-ranked grappler Grant “KGD” Dawson (23-2-1) meets explosive finisher Manuel “El Loco” Torres (16-3-0) on Saturday, December 6, 2025. Dawson, the 31-year-old American Top Team product, enters on a three-fight win streak, aiming to solidify his Top 15 status with a methodical takedown-heavy performance that could propel him toward bigger names like Michael Chandler or Beneil Dariush. His suffocating wrestling (3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes) and submission game (13 career subs) have made him a nightmare for strikers, but a quick knockout loss to Bobby Green in 2023 exposed vulnerabilities in his aggressive starts. Torres, the 30-year-old Mexican switch-striker, boasts a staggering 94% finish rate—all 16 wins in Round 1—and seeks his first Top 15 scalp after rebounding from a rare defeat with a brutal TKO of Drew Dober in March. With 7.87 significant strikes landed per minute and eight KOs, Torres thrives in chaos, but his untested cardio beyond 1:45 could crumble under Dawson’s control. This three-round “wrestler vs. striker” showdown—poised for a $50K bonus—contrasts Dawson’s safe, grinding blueprint against Torres’ live-by-the-sword aggression, with the winner eyeing ranked elevation in a loaded 155-pound landscape.
Venue Location
The battle unfolds at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada (the Las Vegas Valley), at 3780 South Las Vegas Boulevard. This 20,000-seat juggernaut, launched in 2016 as the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights’ stronghold, has hosted 17 UFC events, including the legendary UFC 229 (McGregor vs. Khabib) and its post-fight mayhem. Situated next to the New York-New York Hotel & Casino and the iconic Strip, it’s a connectivity paradise: Las Vegas Monorail (MGM Grand station) or rideshare hubs (Uber/Lyft at Park MGM). Highlights include a massive 360-degree video canopy, elite suites with fighter access, and fan-friendly eats like “Submission Sandwiches” and craft brews. As the UFC’s final ESPN PPV before the 2026 Paramount+ era, expect a thunderous, near-capacity roar of 19,000+; tickets via Ticketmaster start at $175 for prelim uppers, with on-site parking at $50 in the T-Mobile lot.
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. PT) for prelims (Dawson-Torres featured around 9:15 p.m. ET)
Broadcast: ESPN/ESPN+ (prelims), ESPN+ PPV (main card at 10:00 p.m. ET). Early prelims on ESPN+ at 7:00 p.m. ET; international via UFC Fight Pass. SiriusXM Fight Nation (Ch. 93) for audio.
Injury Report
Both fighters are fully cleared post-weigh-ins at 155 lbs, with no active injuries reported in Friday’s medicals. Dawson’s camp was uninterrupted after his January UD over Diego Ferreira, though a scrapped August bout with Joel Alvarez (due to Alvarez’s weight class jump) extended his layoff—no setbacks noted. Torres rebounded cleanly from his September 2024 TKO loss, logging full prep for his March TKO of Dober; minor tweaks from that fight resolved by summer. Standard cut fatigue expected, but peak form confirmed.
| Fighter | Status | Recent Injury History | Notes |
| Grant Dawson | Cleared | None in 2025; prior KO (concussion protocol, Oct. 2023 vs. Green) | Full wrestling integration; no restrictions |
| Manuel Torres | Cleared | Minor tweaks post-Dober TKO (Mar. 2025; resolved by June) | Striking/grappling sharpened; 88% TD defense intact |
Fighter Matchups
Dawson’s grappling dominance (40% TD accuracy, 1.1 subs/15 min) exploits Torres’ unproven ground game, but Torres’ volume (7.87 SLpM, 60% accuracy) and 73.5″ reach (vs. 72″) threaten early. Dawson’s 57% TD defense meets Torres’ 88% stuff rate—expect a chess match in transitions.
Striking: Volume Chaos vs. Setup Precision
Torres’ switch-stance blitz (absorbs 4.20/min, 52% defense) overwhelms early, landing 25+ sig strikes in sub-2-min finishes vs. Dober/Duncan. Dawson’s measured output (3.20 SLpM, 52% accuracy) absorbs low (2.11/min) but invites pressure—his 44% defense held vs. Ferreira (195-84 edge). Edge: Torres Rd. 1; Dawson if ranged (mirrors his Solecki control).
Grappling: Chain Wrestling vs. Opportunistic Subs
Dawson’s 3.87 TD/15 min (57% defense) vs. Torres’ 66% TD accuracy and 1.0 subs/15 min (seven career armbars/RNCs). Torres stuffed 88% attempts vs. Bahamondes; Dawson’s top control (13 mins vs. Solecki) neutralizes standup. Edge: Dawson—his BJJ black belt exploits Torres’ 0 UFC subs absorbed.
Cardio & Durability: Grind Control vs. Explosive Bursts
Dawson’s decisions (9/13 UFC wins) showcase tank (avg. 11:44 fight time), absorbing 84 strikes vs. Ferreira. Torres’ 94% Rd. 1 finishes (avg. 1:32) fade untested (lone loss Rd. 1 TKO). Edge: Dawson—Torres’ volatility risks gassing, per 60% community picks for distance.
Recent Form
Dawson is 3-0 in 2025 (two decisions, one TKO), extending a 14-1-1 streak in 16 fights: UD over Ferreira (Jan., six TDs), TKO elbows vs. Garcia (Oct. 2024, Rd. 2), UD control vs. Solecki (Jun. 2024). His lone UFC loss: 33-sec KO to Green (2023). Torres is 1-1 in 2025: TKO punches vs. Dober (Mar., Rd. 1, POTN), after TKO loss to Bahamondes (Sep. 2024, Rd. 1). Pre-2025: 3-0 with subs/KOs over Duncan/Motta (all Rd. 1).
| Last 5 Fights | Record | Key Win | Key Loss | Notes |
| Dawson | 4-1-0 | W-UD vs. Ferreira (Jan. 2025) | L-KO vs. Green (Oct. 2023) | 75% decisions; 195 strikes landed avg. |
| Torres | 4-1-0 | W-TKO vs. Dober (Mar. 2025, Rd. 1) | L-TKO vs. Bahamondes (Sep. 2024) | 80% Rd. 1 finishes; 25+ strikes avg. |
Fight History
First meeting—no priors. Dawson’s UFC: 11-1-1, subs over Gordon/Madsen; wins over Ismagulov/Ferreira. Torres’ UFC: 4-1, TKOs over Camacho/Dober; sub over Duncan. Analogs: Dawson 5-0 vs. finishers; Torres 3-1 vs. grapplers.
| Date | Dawson Result | Torres Result | Notes |
| N/A | First meeting | First meeting | Dawson 11-1-1 UFC; Torres 4-1 UFC |
Betting Trends
Dawson is 11-1-1 SU UFC (14-1-1 last 16), 8-4-1 ATS; public backs him (65% tickets), 7-3 Over in wins. He’s 3-0 SU 2025, covering as -200+ fave. Torres is 4-1 SU UFC, all Under 1.5 (94% finishes); 3-2 ATS, sharps on +180 (55% handle). Analogs: Dawson 6-1 vs. +150 dogs; Torres 2-1 as underdog. Public 62% Dawson ML; trends favor Under 1.5 (Torres 5/5 UFC).
Trends: Dawson 9/13 UFC Over 1.5; Torres 5/5 Under 1.5. Dawson 3-0 SU 2025; Torres 1-1 SU 2025.
FIGHT ODDS
Grant Dawson – 210
Manuel Torres + 180
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
