MMA Match Preview: Daniel Rodriguez (18-5) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (31-8)

The welterweight showdown between Daniel Rodriguez and Santiago Ponzinibbio is set to take place on May 3, 2025, at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa, as part of UFC on ESPN 67. Both fighters are looking to secure their second consecutive victory, making this a crucial bout in the 170-pound division.

Fighter Profiles

Santiago Ponzinibbio (31-8) – Argentina

Ponzinibbio enters this fight with momentum following a third-round TKO victory over Carlston Harris at UFC Fight Night 249 in January 2025. This win snapped a two-fight losing streak, which included a split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov in July 2024 and a knockout defeat to Kevin Holland in April 2023.

Key Strengths:

• Aggressive Striking – Lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute with a 41% accuracy rate.
• Durability & Experience – Has earned multiple Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night bonuses, showcasing his entertaining style.
• Takedown Defense – Boasts a 71% takedown defense, making him difficult to control on the ground.

Key Weaknesses:

• Grappling Limitations – Averages 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 32% accuracy rate, making him less effective in wrestling exchanges.
• Recent Inconsistency – Has gone 3-5 in his last eight UFC fights, raising concerns about his ability to compete at the highest level.

Daniel Rodriguez (18-5) – USA

Rodriguez rebounded from a two-fight skid with a split decision win over Alex Morono in October 2024. Prior to that, he suffered losses to Kelvin Gastelum and Ian Machado Garry, but his high-volume striking and resilience make him a tough opponent for anyone in the welterweight division.

Key Strengths:

• High Striking Output – Lands 7.50 significant strikes per minute with a 49% accuracy rate, making him one of the most active strikers in the division.
• Decent Grappling – Averages 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 54% accuracy rate, showing improvement in wrestling.
• Durability & Pressure Fighting – Absorbs 5.47 significant strikes per minute, but his ability to push forward keeps him competitive.

Key Weaknesses:

• Striking Defense – Absorbs a high volume of strikes, making him vulnerable to Ponzinibbio’s power.
• Recent Struggles – Has gone 5-3 in his last eight UFC fights, showing inconsistency.

Fight Breakdown & Prediction

This matchup presents an intriguing stylistic clash—Ponzinibbio will look to use his power and aggressive striking, while Rodriguez will likely push forward with volume and counterattacks.

Key Factors:

• Ponzinibbio’s Power Advantage – If he can land clean shots early, he may control the fight.
• Rodriguez’s Volume Striking – If he can dictate the pace, he could overwhelm Ponzinibbio.
• Cardio & Durability – Both fighters have shown resilience, making endurance a key factor.

FIGHT ODDS

Daniel Rodriguez              + 105

Santiago Ponzinibbio     – 125

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, May 2, 2025