MMA Match Preview: Allan Nascimento (21-6-0) vs. Rafael Estevam (14-0-0)
Venue & Fight Details
Event: UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT)
Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs)
Broadcast: ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass
Injury Report
Allan Nascimento: No reported injuries; enters on a full camp.
Rafael Estevam: No reported injuries; cleared for competition.
Fighter Matchups
Allan Nascimento:
Style: Submission specialist with strong grappling.
Finishes: 15 submissions, 1 KO.
Strengths: Elite jiu-jitsu, slick transitions, dangerous off his back.
Weakness: Can be outpointed by high-volume strikers.
Rafael Estevam:
Style: Pressure wrestler with grinding top control.
Finishes: 4 KOs, 3 submissions.
Strengths: High takedown volume (38% accuracy), relentless pace, cardio.
Weakness: Still untested against elite submission artists.
Recent Form
Allan Nascimento:
Win – Jafel Filho (UD, June 2025)
Win – Carlos Hernandez (SUB, Jan 2023)
Win – Jake Hadley (UD, May 2022)
Rafael Estevam:
Win – Felipe Bunes (UD, Aug 2025)
Win – Jesus Aguilar (UD, Feb 2025)
Win – Charles Johnson (UD, Nov 2023)
Fight History & Styles Clash
Nascimento thrives in scrambles and submission chains, with 71% of his wins by tapout.
Estevam is undefeated, with a style built on pressure wrestling and control time (averaging nearly 10 minutes of control in his last three fights).
This is a classic grappler vs. grappler matchup, but with contrasting approaches: Nascimento hunts finishes, Estevam grinds decisions.
Betting Trends
Nascimento: 3-0 in UFC since 2022; 2 of 3 wins by submission/finish.
Estevam: 3-0 in UFC, all by unanimous decision.
Totals: Nascimento fights often end inside the distance; Estevam fights trend to the scorecards.
Underdog Note: Brazilian submission specialists as underdogs have cashed in 41% of UFC bouts since 2020.
FIGHT ODDS
Allan Nascimento + 140
Rafael Estevam – 165
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, October 31, 2025
