MMA Match Preview: Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) vs. Alden Coria (10-3-0, 1 NC)

Event & Venue Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Expected Walkout Time: ~3:40 PM CT (early prelims)

Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Bout Billing: Early prelim — UFC debut for Coria against an established finisher

Injury & Availability Report

Alessandro Costa:

Missed last year’s Noche UFC due to a knee injury that required surgery.

Cleared for return; says he feels “100%” and is aiming for a quick, damage-free win so he can corner teammate Diego Lopes later that night.

Alden Coria:

No reported injuries.

Steps in on short notice after Edgar Chairez withdrew with a significant leg injury.

Recent Form & Fight History

Alessandro Costa

Last 5: W-L-W-L-W

Most Recent: TKO (R2) over Kevin Borjas — earned Performance of the Night

UFC Wins: Jimmy Flick (TKO), Kevin Borjas (TKO) — both via aggressive striking and follow-up ground-and-pound

Losses: Amir Albazi (UD), Steve Erceg (UD) — competitive early but faded against elite opposition

Style: Compact, muscular flyweight with fight-ending power in both hands; mixes in opportunistic submissions; thrives when pressuring.

Alden Coria

Last 5: W-W-W-NC-L

Most Recent: TKO (R2) over German Orpineda Ponce (Fury FC)

Regional Résumé: Former Fury FC flyweight champ; 5-2 in LFA; never finished in 14 pro bouts

Style: Technical kickboxer with crisp combinations to head and body; patient counter-striker; capable in clinch and wrestling exchanges.

Matchup Analysis

Striking:

Costa: Higher power, explosive bursts, dangerous in exchanges.

Coria: Taller, longer, more measured; prefers to counter and work the body.

Grappling:

Costa: Submission threat (notably guillotines), strong top control.

Coria: Solid defensive grappling; can wrestle offensively but not his primary weapon.

Pace & Cardio:

Costa: Can maintain pressure for three rounds but relies on momentum.

Coria: Builds into fights; risk of losing early rounds due to low output.

Intangibles:

Costa has faced — and hurt — top-10 flyweights; Coria making debut on short notice.

Coria’s durability is proven regionally, but UFC-level power is a new test.

Betting Trends

Line Movement: Costa opened around -350; steady action on the favorite has pushed him into the -400s.

Public Action: Heavy public and parlay interest on Costa ML; some sharp money on Over 2.5 rounds, anticipating Coria’s durability.

Prop Interest:

Costa by KO/TKO (+150 to +175) — popular due to his recent finishes.

Costa by Decision (+200 to +225) — value play if Coria survives early storm.

Coria by Decision (+500+) — longshot for a slow-paced upset.

Historical Trends: Costa’s UFC wins have both come inside the distance; Coria has finished 8 of 10 wins but may be more conservative in debut.