MMA Match Preview: Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) vs. Bogdan Guskov (18-3)
The light heavyweight division’s veteran vs. prospect showdown opens the main card of UFC 323 as former champion Jan “The Prince of Warsaw” Blachowicz (29-11-1) faces surging finisher Bogdan “The Czarevitch” Guskov (18-3) on Saturday, December 6, 2025. Blachowicz, the 42-year-old Polish powerhouse ranked No. 6, enters desperate to snap a three-fight winless skid (1-2-1 since 2022) that includes a controversial split draw with Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant title and split decision losses to Alex Pereira and a unanimous nod to Carlos Ulberg. His measured striking and grappling IQ have defined a Hall of Fame career, but diminished speed and accumulated mileage raise questions about his chin against explosive youth. Guskov, the 33-year-old Uzbek knockout artist ranked No. 12, arrives on a four-fight stoppage streak—all UFC wins since a debut submission loss—capping with a brutal first-round TKO of Nikita Krylov in July. With 15 KOs (83% finish rate) and raw power, Guskov eyes a Top 5 leap, but his untested cardio beyond Round 1 and 57% takedown defense could crumble under Blachowicz’s pressure. This three-round opener—reshuffled from earlier 2025 dates due to Blachowicz’s shoulder recovery—contrasts the Pole’s tactical savvy against Guskov’s blitz, with the winner positioning for ranked resurgence in a division ruled by Magomed Ankalaev.
Venue Location
The fight tips off at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada (the Las Vegas Valley), at 3780 South Las Vegas Boulevard. This 20,000-seat arena, opened in 2016 as the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights’ home, has hosted 18 UFC events, including the infamous UFC 229 (McGregor vs. Khabib) brawl and record PPV draws. Adjacent to the New York-New York Hotel & Casino and the neon-drenched Strip, it’s a transit dream: Las Vegas Monorail (MGM Grand station) or rideshare hubs (Uber/Lyft at Park MGM). Amenities include a 360-degree video board, fighter-access suites, and concessions like “KO Wings” and premium lounges. As the UFC’s final ESPN PPV before the 2026 Paramount+ era, expect a rowdy sellout of 19,500+; tickets via Ticketmaster start at $175 for main card uppers, with T-Mobile garage parking at $50/event.
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. PT) for main card (Blachowicz-Guskov opener around 10:00 p.m. ET)
Broadcast: ESPN+ PPV (main card, $79.99), ESPN/ESPN+ (prelims at 8:00 p.m. ET), ESPN+ (early prelims at 6:00 p.m. ET). International via UFC Fight Pass; SiriusXM Fight Nation (Ch. 93) for audio.
Injury Report
Blachowicz enters healthy after a full camp, putting past ailments behind him—no active issues flagged in Friday weigh-ins at 205 lbs or media day. His 2024 shoulder surgery (rotator cuff) sidelined him for a year, but he’s cleared with “no injuries” per his Wednesday comments, focusing on finish hunting. Guskov reports zero setbacks, his July TKO of Krylov yielding no downtime; full striking/grappling prep confirmed.
| Fighter | Status | Recent Injury History | Notes |
| Jan Blachowicz | Cleared | Shoulder surgery (2024; rotator cuff, resolved by March 2025) | Full recovery; no restrictions, camp “good” |
| Bogdan Guskov | Cleared | None in 2025; minor tweaks post-Krylov TKO (resolved by September) | Power intact; grappling sharpened |
Fighter Matchups
Blachowicz’s orthodox pressure (78″ reach edge over 76″) challenges Guskov’s blitz (4.17 SLpM), but Guskov’s power (55% accuracy) threatens early. Blachowicz’s 1.03 TD/15 min exploits Guskov’s 57% defense—expect kickboxing with wrestling wrinkles.
Striking: Measured Counters vs. Explosive Volume
Blachowicz’s jab/leg kicks (3.44 SLpM, 52% defense) meet Guskov’s straight rights (absorbs 3.30/min, 45% defense). Blachowicz outlanded Ulberg 120-98; Guskov dropped Krylov with 25 sig strikes in 2:15. Edge: Blachowicz—his jab disrupts, projecting +30 strike margin.
Grappling: Top Control vs. Sub Threats
Blachowicz’s 48% TD accuracy (0.4 subs/15 min) vs. Guskov’s 1.1 subs/15 min (guillotine vs. Elekana). Blachowicz controlled Rakic 4:12; Guskov stuffed 57% vs. Oezdemir. Edge: Blachowicz—69% TD defense neutralizes, but Guskov’s chains lurk.
Cardio & Durability: Veteran Tank vs. Early Burst
Blachowicz’s decisions (40% wins, avg. 13:11 time) vs. Guskov’s finishes (avg. 4:45). Blachowicz absorbed 150 vs. Pereira; Guskov took 20 vs. Krylov. Edge: Blachowicz—age tests Guskov’s unproven Rd. 3 (0 UFC decisions).
Recent Form
Blachowicz is 1-2-1 in his last four (2023-25), winless in three: UD loss to Ulberg (Mar. 2025, 29-28 x3, outstruck 98-120), SD loss to Pereira (Jul. 2023, 28-29 x2/29-28), SD draw vs. Ankalaev (Dec. 2022, 47-47 x2/48-47). His lone win: TKO (injury) vs. Rakic (May 2022). Guskov is 4-0 since 2023 UFC debut loss: TKO (punches) vs. Krylov (Jul. 2025, Rd. 1, 2:15, POTN), Sub (guillotine) vs. Elekana (Jan. 2025, Rd. 2, 3:42), TKO vs. Silva (Sep. 2024, Rd. 1), TKO vs. Mullarkey (Mar. 2024, Rd. 1).
| Last 5 Fights | Record | Key Win | Key Loss | Notes |
| Blachowicz | 1-2-1 | W-TKO vs. Rakic (May 2022, Rd. 2 injury) | L-UD vs. Ulberg (Mar. 2025) | 75% decisions; 120 strikes landed avg. |
| Guskov | 4-1 | W-TKO vs. Krylov (Jul. 2025, Rd. 1) | L-Sub vs. Oezdemir (Jun. 2023) | 100% finishes in streak; 25 strikes avg. |
Fight History
First meeting—no priors. Blachowicz’s UFC: 12-8-1, wins over Adesanya, Rountree; losses to Teixeira, Pereira. Guskov’s UFC: 4-1, TKOs over Krylov, Silva; sub over Elekana. Analogs: Blachowicz 5-2 vs. prospects; Guskov 3-0 vs. veterans.
| Date | Blachowicz Result | Guskov Result | Notes |
| N/A | First meeting | First meeting | Blachowicz 12-8-1 UFC; Guskov 4-1 UFC |
Betting Trends
Blachowicz is 1-3-1 SU last 5, 2-3 ATS; public leans him (60% tickets), but 3-2 Over in losses. He’s 0-2 SU 2025. Guskov is 4-0 SU streak, 3-1 ATS; sharps on +114 (55% handle), 4-0 Under. Analogs: Blachowicz 3-2 vs. +100 dogs; Guskov 2-0 as underdog. Public 58% Blachowicz ML; trends favor Under 2.5 (Guskov 100% finishes).
Trends: Blachowicz 4/5 Over 2.5; Guskov 4/4 Under 1.5. Blachowicz 0-2 SU 2025; Guskov 2-0 SU 2025.
FIGHT ODDS
Jan Blachowicz – 135
Bogdan Guskov + 115
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
