MMA Match Preview: Muhammad Naimov (13-3) vs. Mairon Santos (16-1)
The featherweight division’s rising prospects square off in the early prelims of UFC 323 as Muhammad “Hillman” Naimov (13-3-0) battles Mairon “The Legend” Santos (16-1-0) on Saturday, December 6, 2025. Naimov, the 31-year-old Tajikistani grinder ranked No. 46 in the division, enters on a two-fight win streak, aiming to build momentum after rebounding from a submission setback with dominant decision victories. His balanced attack—featuring opportunistic wrestling and heavy hands—has netted him five UFC wins, but questions linger about his finishing ability against polished strikers. Santos, the 25-year-old Brazilian phenom and TUF 32 featherweight winner ranked No. 54, carries a six-fight unbeaten streak into his toughest test yet, blending sharp boxing with volume output that overwhelmed recent foes. As a former lightweight experimenting at 145 pounds, Santos seeks a third straight UFC decision to vault into contention, but his low-volume tendencies and debated judging could falter against Naimov’s pressure. This three-round opener—reshuffled from UFC Fight Night 265 due to undisclosed reasons—promises a tactical striking clinic with grappling wrinkles, pitting Naimov’s experience against Santos’ youth in a bout that could steal the show on the UFC’s final ESPN PPV before the 2026 Paramount+ era.
Venue Location
The Octagon heats up at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada (the Las Vegas Valley), at 3780 South Las Vegas Boulevard. This 20,000-seat marvel, christened in 2016 as the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights’ lair, has staged 18 UFC events, including the explosive UFC 229 (McGregor vs. Khabib) and its legendary post-fight chaos. Wedged between the New York-New York Hotel & Casino and the luminous Strip, it’s a fan’s transit utopia: Las Vegas Monorail (MGM Grand stop) or rideshare sanctuaries (Uber/Lyft at Park MGM). Standouts include a colossal 360-degree video marquee, celebrity suites with fighter Q&As, and grub like “Takedown Tacos” and artisanal elixirs. Marking the UFC’s ESPN PPV finale, gear up for a pulsating, sellout surge of 19,000+; tickets via Ticketmaster launch at $125 for early prelim uppers, with T-Mobile’s subterranean garage at $50/night.
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET (3:00 p.m. PT) for early prelims (Naimov-Santos opener circa 6:15 p.m. ET)
Broadcast: ESPN+ (early prelims), ESPN/ESPN+ (prelims at 8:00 p.m. ET), ESPN+ PPV (main card at 10:00 p.m. ET). Global access via UFC Fight Pass; SiriusXM Fight Nation (Ch. 93) for radio.
Injury Report
Both combatants are fully cleared following Friday’s weigh-ins at 145 lbs, with no injuries surfacing in media day updates or medicals. Naimov’s camp was seamless post his June unanimous decision over Bogdan Grad, though the bout’s original November 22 slot on UFC Fight Night 265 was scrapped for “undisclosed reasons” (no fighter-specific issues cited, per UFC reports). Santos, fresh off a May unanimous decision over Sodiq Yusuff, reported zero setbacks in his Fighting Nerds gym transition. Minor cut-related haze anticipated, but pristine conditioning verified.
| Fighter | Status | Recent Injury History | Notes |
| Muhammad Naimov | Cleared | None in 2025; prior sub loss (no structural damage, Jun. 2024 vs. Lima) | Full grappling load; rescheduling non-injury related |
| Mairon Santos | Cleared | None reported; minor tweaks post-Mar. 2025 split DEC (resolved by May) | Striking emphasis; TUF conditioning carries over |
Fighter Matchups
Naimov’s orthodox pressure (2.61 SLpM, 46% accuracy) challenges Santos’ volume edge (3.53 SLpM, 52% accuracy), but the Brazilian’s 72″ reach (vs. 70″) aids distance management. Naimov’s 1.2 TD/15 min exploits Santos’ 65% TD defense, yet the TUF champ’s 58% striking absorption invites chaos.
Striking: Grind vs. Precision Volume
Naimov’s forward march (absorbs 2.89/min, 52% defense) meets Santos’ jab-led combos (lands 3.53/min, 44% head strikes vs. Yusuff). Naimov edged Grad 88-58 at distance; Santos outlanded Marshall 58-39 despite controversy. Edge: Santos early; Naimov in pockets (his 38% KO rate shines close).
Grappling: Opportunistic Control vs. Takedown Resistance
Naimov’s wrestling (1.2 TD/15 min, 0.4 subs attempted) tests Santos’ sprawls (65% defense, stuffed Ofli). Naimov controlled Ofli 5:36; Santos evaded Marshall’s 3 attempts. Edge: Naimov—his 15% sub wins target Santos’ untested ground (0 UFC subs absorbed).
Cardio & Durability: Veteran Tank vs. Youthful Output
Naimov’s decisions (38% wins, avg. 12:45 time) vs. Santos’ recent distance fights (50% UFC to DEC). Naimov absorbed 115 strikes vs. Grad; Santos took 64 vs. Marshall without fading. Edge: Naimov—experience in wars (5-1 UFC) edges Santos’ unproven Rd. 3 (debated Marshall score).
Recent Form
Naimov is 2-1 in 2025, rebounding from a 2024 sub loss with grinding decisions: UD over Ofli (Feb., 32-31 strikes, 2 TDs) and Grad (Jun., 88-58 edge). His 5-1 UFC run includes early TKOs, but decisions dominate lately (75% 2025). Santos is 3-0 in 2025 (two DECs, one prior TKO), extending a 6-fight streak: UD over Yusuff (May, 40-36 strikes), controversial SD over Marshall (Mar., 58-39), and Rd. 2 KO of Ofli (Aug. 2024 TUF final). His 100% UFC finish pre-2025 flipped to volume wins.
| Last 5 Fights | Record | Key Win | Key Loss | Notes |
| Naimov | 3-1-0 | W-UD vs. Grad (Jun. 2025) | L-Sub vs. Lima (Jun. 2024) | 75% decisions; 88 strikes landed avg. |
| Santos | 5-0-0 | W-UD vs. Yusuff (May 2025) | N/A | 60% decisions lately; 43 strikes/min avg. |
Fight History
Maiden voyage—no priors. Naimov’s UFC: 5-1, TKOs over Mullarkey/Silva; wins over Wood/Guskov. Santos’ UFC: 3-0, KO over Ofli; DECs over Yusuff/Marshall. Analogs: Naimov 3-0 vs. volume strikers; Santos 2-0 vs. grapplers.
| Date | Naimov Result | Santos Result | Notes |
| N/A | First meeting | First meeting | Naimov 5-1 UFC; Santos 3-0 UFC |
Betting Trends
Naimov is 4-2 SU last 6, 3-3 ATS; public overlooks him (55% on favorites), but 4-1 Over in wins. He’s 2-0 SU 2025 as underdog. Santos is 6-0 SU streak, 4-2 ATS; sharps back his ML (65% handle), yet 3/3 UFC Over 2.5. Analogs: Naimov 3-1 vs. -200+ foes; Santos 2-0 as fave. Public 58% Santos ML; trends lean Over (Naimov 5/6 UFC).
Trends: Naimov 5/6 Over 2.5; Santos 3/3 UFC Over 2.5. Naimov 2-0 SU 2025; Santos 3-0 SU 2025.
FIGHT ODDS
Muhammad Naimov + 210
Mairon Santos – 250
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
