MMA Match Preview: Lucas Almeida (15-4) vs. Michael Aswell (10-3)

Venue & Event Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Time: Main card begins 7:00 p.m. ET (4:00 p.m. PT)

Division: Featherweight (145 lbs), 3 rounds

Injury Report

Lucas Almeida: Healthy, cleared to fight after split-decision loss to Danny Silva.

Michael Aswell: Healthy, no reported issues after debut loss to Bolaji Oki.

Fighter Matchups

Lucas Almeida (Brazil, 34 years old)

Record: 15-4 (9 KO/TKO, 5 SUB)

Height/Reach: 5’11”, 71” reach

Style: Forward-moving striker, counter power, occasional submissions

Stats: 4.94 SLpM, 39% accuracy, absorbs 5.04 per min, 44% defense

Strengths: Reach advantage, knockout power, submission threat if fight hits mat

Weaknesses: Negative strike differential, fades late in fights

Michael Aswell (USA, 24 years old)

Record: 10-3 (5 KO/TKO)

Height/Reach: 5’8”, 69” reach

Style: High-volume striker, pressure fighter

Stats: 9.10 SLpM, 44% accuracy, absorbs 7.93 per min, 54% defense

Strengths: Relentless pace, youth, cardio edge

Weaknesses: Defensive lapses, hittable, unproven against elite competition

Key Battle: Almeida’s counter power vs. Aswell’s overwhelming pace.

Recent Form

Almeida (Last 5): L-W-L-W-L – most recent: split-decision loss to Danny Silva (Mar 2025).

Aswell (Last 5): L-W-W-W-L – most recent: unanimous-decision loss to Bolaji Oki (June 2025).

Series History

First meeting between Almeida and Aswell.

Betting Trends

Almeida: 14 of 19 career fights ended inside the distance; 1-3 in last 4 UFC bouts.

Aswell: Landed 118 strikes in UFC debut despite loss; averages nearly double Almeida’s output.

Public picks: ~64% backing Aswell, 36% Almeida.

Both fighters: 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes – expect a pure striking battle.

FIGHT ODDS

Lucas Almeida                  + 130

Michael Aswell                 – 150

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, October 10, 2025