MMA Match Preview: Jesus Aguilar (11-3-0) vs. Luis Gurule (10-1-0)

Event & Venue Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Expected Walkout Time: ~12:35 PM local (CT) — Prelims

Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Bout Billing: Preliminary card — high-stakes fight for both men

Injury & Availability Report

Jesus Santos Aguilar: No reported injuries; enters fight week healthy. Coming off a decision loss to Rafael Estevam that halted a three-fight UFC win streak.

Luis Gurule: No reported injuries; second UFC appearance after debut loss to Ode Osbourne. Full camp completed at Factory X Muay Thai.

Recent Form & Fight History

Jesus Santos Aguilar

Last 5: W-W-W-L-L

Most Recent: Loss to Rafael Estevam (UD) — UFC Fight Night, May 2025

Notable Wins: Stewart Nicoll (SUB, R1), Shannon Ross (KO, R1)

Style: Aggressive grappler with a dangerous guillotine choke; physically strong for flyweight; serviceable striking but primarily uses it to set up takedowns.

Concerns: Can force submissions at the wrong time, leading to positional losses; limited one-shot KO power.

Luis Gurule

Last 5: W-W-W-W-L

Most Recent: Loss to Ode Osbourne (TKO, R2) — UFC debut

Notable Wins (pre-UFC): Nick Piccininni (SD, DWCS)

Style: Volume striker with KO power; mixes in wrestling when needed; durable chin and forward pressure.

Concerns: Hand speed is modest for flyweight; defensive lapses leave him open to counters and takedowns.

Matchup Analysis

Striking: Gurule has the edge in volume and power; Aguilar is more selective but can land hard counters.

Grappling: Clear advantage to Aguilar — 64% of career wins via submission. Gurule’s defensive grappling will be tested if taken down.

Cardio: Both have gone the distance multiple times; Gurule’s pace is steadier, Aguilar’s is more explosive in bursts.

Intangibles: Aguilar has more UFC experience and will have strong crowd support in Texas given his Mexican heritage.

Betting Trends

Line Movement: Gurule opened around -200; slight drift toward -230 as public money comes in on the favorite.

Public Action: Majority of bets on Gurule ML; some sharp interest on Aguilar as a live underdog.

Prop Interest: Aguilar by submission (+400 to +500) is drawing attention; Gurule by KO/TKO (+250 to +300) is the most popular favorite prop.

Historical Trends: Aguilar is 2-0 in UFC when closing as an underdog; Gurule has never been submitted but has been stopped by strikes.