MMA Match Preview: Tatiana Suarez (11-1-0) vs. Amanda Lemos (15-4-1)

Event & Venue Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Local Start Time: Prelims 5:00 PM CT / Main Card 8:00 PM CT

Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Bout Billing: Featured Prelim — pivotal Top 5 strawweight matchup

Injury & Availability Report

Tatiana Suarez:

Suffered a gruesome knee injury in her title fight loss to Zhang Weili at UFC 312 in February 2025.

Cleared for return after rehab; no current injury limitations reported.

Previously withdrew from a scheduled bout with Lemos at UFC 298 (Feb 2024) due to a knee setback.

Amanda Lemos:

No reported injuries entering fight week.

Active in 2025, coming off a decision win over Iasmin Lucindo at UFC 313.

Recent Form & Fight History

Tatiana Suarez

Last 5: W-W-W-W-L

Most Recent: Loss to Zhang Weili (UD, UFC 312, Feb 2025) — first career defeat.

Notable Wins: Jessica Andrade (SUB), Carla Esparza (TKO), Alexa Grasso (UD).

Style: Elite wrestler with relentless pressure, chain takedowns, and top control; dangerous submission game (5 career subs).

Concerns: Long injury history; questions about durability and explosiveness post-knee injury.

Amanda Lemos

Last 5: W-L-W-L-W

Most Recent: Win over Iasmin Lucindo (UD, UFC 313, Mar 2025).

Notable Wins: Marina Rodriguez (TKO), Michelle Waterson-Gomez (SUB), Mackenzie Dern (UD).

Style: Explosive striker with KO power; sharp counterpunching and leg kicks; opportunistic submissions.

Concerns: Vulnerable to strong grapplers (losses to Zhang, Jandiroba, Andrade by finish).

Matchup Analysis

Striking:

Lemos has the edge in raw power and precision striking.

Suarez’s stand-up is functional but primarily used to set up entries.

Grappling:

Suarez is one of the division’s most dominant wrestlers; averages nearly 5 takedowns per fight.

Lemos has solid offensive BJJ but struggles off her back against top control.

Cardio:

Suarez’s pace can wear opponents down; Lemos has shown fatigue in high-pressure grappling bouts.

Intangibles:

Suarez is younger, longer, and fighting to reassert herself as a title contender.

Lemos is experienced, dangerous early, and motivated for a second title run.

Betting Trends

Line Movement: Suarez opened around -350; heavy action has pushed her to -425/-460.

Public Action: Majority of bets on Suarez ML; some sharp money on Lemos ITD for upset value.

Prop Interest: Suarez by submission (+150 to +200) is the most popular method bet; Lemos by KO/TKO (+500 to +600) is the underdog flier.

Historical Trends: Suarez is 5-0 in UFC when landing 3+ takedowns; Lemos is 1-3 vs. ranked grapplers.

FIGHT ODDS

Tatiana Suarez                   – 100000

Amanda Lemos                 + 4000

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, September 12, 2025