MMA Match Preview: Alexander Hernandez (17-8-0) vs. Diego Ferreira (19-6-0)

Event & Venue Details

Event: UFC Fight Night 259 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Local Start Time: Prelims 5:00 PM CT / Main Card 8:00 PM CT

Broadcast: ESPN+ (U.S.), TNT Sports (UK), UFC Fight Pass (international)

Bout Billing: Featured Prelim / High-Profile Lightweight Clash

Injury & Availability Report

No reported injuries for either Hernandez or Ferreira heading into fight week.

This matchup was added late to the card after a co-main bantamweight bout (Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.) was scrapped due to Rosas Jr.’s withdrawal.

Both fighters are coming in off full training camps, with Hernandez making a quick turnaround after his August KO win over Chase Hooper.

Recent Form & Fight History

Alexander Hernandez

Last 5: W-W-W-L-L

Most Recent: 1st-round KO over Chase Hooper (UFC 319, Aug 2025)

Style: Explosive early-round striker with solid wrestling defense; thrives when dictating pace.

Notable Wins: Beneil Dariush (KO), Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Jim Miller.

Concerns: Cardio fade in later rounds; hittable in exchanges.

Diego Ferreira

Last 5: L-W-W-L-L

Most Recent: UD loss to Grant Dawson (UFC 311, Jan 2025)

Style: High-volume striker with elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu; dangerous in scrambles and top control.

Notable Wins: Anthony Pettis, Mairbek Taisumov, Mateusz Rebecki (TKO).

Concerns: Age (40) and recent cardio drop-off; lower takedown defense could be exploited.

Matchup Analysis

Striking: Hernandez brings more explosive power; Ferreira offers slightly higher volume and better strike absorption.

Grappling: Ferreira has the more dangerous submission game, but Hernandez’s 73% takedown defense is a key weapon.

Pace & Cardio: Hernandez starts fast but can fade; Ferreira builds late but may not have the same gas tank as in his prime.

Intangibles: Hernandez fights in his hometown; Ferreira is also Texas-based but older and potentially slower in reaction time.

Betting Trends

Line Movement: Opened near pick’em; money has come in slightly on Hernandez, pushing him to a small favorite.

Public Action: Early public lean toward Hernandez due to recent KO win and age gap.

Prop Interest: “Fight doesn’t go the distance” drawing action — both have finishing ability and defensive lapses.

Historical Trends: Hernandez is 3-0 in his last three fights when closing as a favorite; Ferreira is 1-3 in his last four as an underdog.

FIGHT ODDS

Alexander Hernandez                    – 110

Diego Ferreira                                   – 110

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, September 12, 2025